GHG Mitigation Potential, Costs and Benefits in Global Forests: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Approach

Background

In this article, the authors discuss the global mitigation potential for greenhouse gas carbon sequestration in forest plantations. They estimate the land area that land users would plant or prevent from being deforested above the reference scenario of no carbon prices. Their economic analysis suggests that billions of dollars are gained through carbon sequestration.

Research goals & methods 

The method used for this analysis is a global dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP) built to stiimulate the response of the forestry sector to changes in future carbon prices. For this analysis, they used one reference scenario with no carbon price and six carbon price mitigation scenarios ranging from $5 /t to $100/t between the year 2000 and 2100. In the reference scenario, their analysis shows that changes in carbon stocks declines until 2030 - following trends of deforestation - and then increases up to 2100. In general, the higher the carbon price, the higher the land area planted and the carbon benefits gained. However, while a high carbon price early resulted in large carbon gains by 2050, some scenarios reported the same carbon gains by 2100. Scenario 6 ($75/t + $5/year to 2050 and constant thereafter) resulted in having the largest carbon gain of 113.2 Gt C by 2100, despite the consideration of land area gained after 2052 declining - relative to the reference scenario.

Conclusions & takeways

Higher prices earlier lead to more carbon gain sooner and viceversa. Reduced deforestation emerged as a dominant mitigatioin option (it accounts for 51% to 78% or carbon benefits gained by 2100). The use of biofuel timber products as a substitute for fossil fuels offers a way to greatly expand the potential for carbon mitigation from forestry. Detailed assessment of land-use change is needed by region, in order to improve estimates for reducing deforestation and land availability for forestation.