The system dynamics of forest cover in the developing world: Researcher versus community perspectives

Background

Despite reforestation efforts, the issue of declining forest cover in the Philippines remains a concern. The paper specifically examines Negros Island in the central Philippines, a region that has experienced significant deforestation, transforming predominantly tropical seasonal forests into intensive agricultural lands. Historically, Negros was a center for Philippine sugar production, leading to land-grabbing and a concentration of land ownership among a few, leaving poorer residents to farm marginal upland areas. Three socio-economic patterns characterize Negros Island today: a distribution of agricultural lands disadvantaging the poor, a high rural poverty rate, and high population density.

Goals and Methods

The primary goal of this research is to determine if a group system dynamics model-building approach could benefit the analysis of deforestation causes and reforestation options in the Philippines. The study specifically aims to compare the views of researchers and local community members on the causes of decreasing forest cover, the spatial scales at which these causes operate, and the potential leverage points for increasing forest cover. To achieve this, the author compares a researcher-generated causal loop diagram of forest cover dynamics on Negros Island, developed by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), with a community-generated causal loop diagram. Community members in Canla-on, Negros created their diagram through a workshop and follow-up interviews. The community participants were not aware of the researcher’s perspective when they developed their diagram, ensuring an independent view. The analysis focuses on identifying significant differences in the variables and feedback loops present in the two diagrams.

Conclusions and Takeaways

The study concludes that the research and community perspectives on the causes of deforestation differ substantially, with very few common variables identified. The researcher-generated diagram emphasizes macro-level drivers, historical trends, and national/international political decisions, portraying individual farmers as constrained by a larger system. In contrast, the community-generated diagram focuses on local-level dynamics, individual landowners’ decisions, and the potential influence of municipal governments. A key finding is the differing identification of leverage points for reforestation. The community emphasizes local government support and agricultural productivity improvements, while the researcher perspective includes broader issues like population growth and land reform. The significant difference in perception suggests that using a group model-building exercise to integrate both community and researcher perspectives could enhance systemic understanding. This could result in more robust and successful reforestation initiatives in the Philippines.