Modeling, Goalsetting, and Frameworks
Global Carbon Budget 2025Background“Global Carbon Budget 2025” extends the living dataset on anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among atmosphere, ocean, and land, updating trends through 2024, and providing preliminary 2025 estimates. Atmospheric CO2 has risen from about 278 ppm in 1750 to 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm in 2024, with recent growth amplified by the 2023–2024 El Niño event. This paper highlights the continued dominance of fossil fuel emissions, persistent sources of land-use change, and climate-driven modulation of land and ocean sinks within the broader carbon-climate system. Open access copy available |
Global Carbon Budget 2024Background“Global Carbon Budget 2024” assesses how anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions disrupt the global carbon cycle relative to pre-industrial conditions, when atmospheric CO2 was about 278 ppm in 1750. The study focuses on emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change and how these are partitioned between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere. Recent changes, in the context of long-term trends since 1958, emphasize the role of deforestation, fossil fuel combustion, and climate variability, such as El Niño, in shaping CO2 fluxes. Open access copy available |
Decreasing landscape carbon storage in western US forests with 2 °C of warmingBackgroundThis study investigates how a 2°C increase in global mean temperature above pre-industrial levels could alter above-ground carbon storage in forests across the western United States, a region already experiencing climate-driven tree mortality, reduced regeneration, and more frequent fire and insect outbreaks. Forest carbon density is treated as a “carbon carrying capacity” controlled by climate and disturbance regimes, and there is concern that warming and drying will shift many areas towards lower carbon forest or non-forest states, with implications for climate mitigation and carbon offset projects. Open access copy available |
Elevation, aspect, and climate shape blue pine (Pinus wallichiana) biomass and carbon dynamics in the Bhutanese HimalayasBackgroundForests cover over two-thirds of Bhutan and are constitutionally protected, enabling national carbon neutrality. Yet, climate change, increasing temperatures, variable precipitation, and heightened wildfire risk threaten carbon storage capacity and species distributions. Blue pine is a fast-growing, socio-economically important species dominating inner dry valleys between roughly 2200–3000 m, making it an ideal model to understand how elevation and slope aspect regulate biomass accumulation and carbon sequestration under changing climate conditions. Open access copy available |
Refining the Global Estimate of Mangrove Carbon Burial Rates Using Sedimentary and Geomorphic SettingsBackgroundPrevious research has focused on calculating accurate estimates of global mangrove carbon stock, while lacking studies examining global patterns of organic carbon (OC) burial. Mangrove forests are naturally highly variable, existing in different sedimentary (i.e., terrigenous- or carbonate-dominant) and geomorphic (i.e., delta, estuary, lagoon, open coast) environments. In addition, different anthropogenic factors affect their structure. Therefore, it is necessary to examine how the spatial variability of mangrove sedimentary and geomorphic settings affects global OC burial estimates. Open access copy available |
Global, multi-scale standing deadwood segmentation in centimeter-scale aerial imagesBackgroundThis article examines how increasing tree mortality worldwide creates an urgent need for efficient approaches to map standing deadwood, including both fully dead crowns and partial canopy dieback, as a basis for monitoring forest dieback and informing management across biomes. Existing remote-sensing methods using RGB aerial imagery often work only for specific regions, resolutions, or forest types, limiting their transferability and value for global applications. Open access copy available |
Indicators to assess viable entry points for implementing landscape approachesBackgroundOpen access copy available |
Resilience to Hurricanes is High in Mangrove Blue Carbon ForestsBackgroundWhile many anthropogenic forces threaten the survival of mangrove forests, tropical storms are the most significant non-anthropogenic sources of disturbance. Since mangroves are important carbon sinks, it is important to understand the impacts of tropical storms on mangrove forest structure, function, and carbon stock recovery. Open access copy available |
Current trends and future directions for integrating social values into mangrove restorationBackgroundDifferent communication styles, governance, and social issues create barriers to successful mangrove forest restoration projects, and may hinder the ability to scale up projects to meet global restoration goals. Incorporating social values and stakeholder preferences into restoration projects can help identify best management practices, promote successful outcomes, and prevent distrust and inequality between restoration practitioners and stakeholders with different needs and perceptions of mangrove forests. Open access copy available |
Bridging conservation and policy: evaluating national targets to reduce mangrove loss under the Kunming–Montreal biodiversity frameworkBackgroundThis research examines the alignment between the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) targets and national efforts to halt mangrove loss. Under the Convention on Biological Diversity, GBF’s Targets 1 and 3 aim to reduce habitat loss and expand protected areas to conserve 30% of critical ecosystems by 2030. Mangroves, vital for biodiversity, carbon storage, and coastal protection, continue to experience degradation due to both human and natural drivers. Despite partial success in global mangrove protection, national policies often fail to address underlying drivers of degradation or incorporate specific, measurable conservation actions. Open access copy available |
