Modeling, Goalsetting, and Frameworks
Storm Surge Reduction by MangrovesBackgroundFlooding and wave energy from storm surges can damage infrastructure and harm inhabitants of coastal communities. Climate change and sea level rise have the potential to increase or intensify storm surges, which necessitate investment in coastal defenses and disaster risk reduction. Mangroves can reduce the effects of storm surges through attenuating waves and wind, making mangroves an important form of nature-based protection for coastal communities. Open access copy available |
Reduction of Wind and Swell Waves by MangrovesBackgroundCoastal ecosystems can mitigate the damage from extreme weather events like tropical storms and hurricanes. With human populations increasing in coastal areas, policymakers and stakeholders are interested in coastal ecosystems, like mangrove forests, as a nature-based form of coastal defense and resilience. This report aims to examine the potential for mangroves to reduce wind and swell waves in order to inform decision makers about the potential for mangroves to decrease the risks faced by coastal communities. Open access copy available |
Life cycle impacts of forest management and wood utilization on carbon mitigation: knowns and unknownsBackgroundForests currently remove 2-3 GtC yr⁻¹ from the atmosphere, while global wood harvest exceeds 3-4 billion m³ yr⁻¹, creating complex interactions between forest carbon stocks, harvested wood products, and the substitution of wood for more emission-intensive materials. Lifecycle assessment (LCA) is widely used to evaluate these interactions, but differing system boundaries, baselines, and treatment of carbon pools can lead to very different conclusions about mitigation benefits. Clarifying where evidence is robust and where major uncertainties remain is essential for designing coherent forest-climate policy. Open access copy available |
Forest carbon in Amazonia: the unrecognized contribution of indigenous territories and protected natural areasBackgroundAmazonia stores an estimated 80–120 Pg of aboveground carbon, and changes in this stock have global climate implications. Indigenous territories (ITs) and protected natural areas (PNAs) together cover roughly one-third to one-half of the Amazon region, yet their specific contribution to maintaining forest carbon has often been overlooked in regional mitigation discussions. Quantifying their role is important for designing REDD+, climate finance, and land rights policies that reflect on-the-ground conservation performance. Open access copy available |
Towards a modular multi ecosystem monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) framework for soil organic carbon stock change assessmentBackgroundSoils store roughly 1,500–2,400 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon globally, more than the combined carbon in the atmosphere and vegetation, making soil organic carbon (SOC) a critical component of climate mitigation and land degradation neutrality targets. Many initiatives assume that relatively small annual increases in SOC across large areas could offset gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2, but these claims require robust, comparable monitoring systems. Current MRV approaches often focus on single sectors and use heterogeneous methods, limiting their usefulness for cross-ecosystem accounting and results-based finance. Open access copy available |
Overestimated natural biological nitrogen fixation translates to an exaggerated CO2 fertilization effectBackgroundBiological nitrogen fixation (BNF) supplies a substantial fraction of reactive nitrogen of ecosystems, typically estimated in the tens to over 100 Tg N yr⁻¹ globally, thus constraining how strongly plants can respond to rising CO2. Many Earth system models (ESMs) parameterize BNF such that nitrogen does not strongly limit CO2 fertilization, potentially inflating modelled land carbon sinks and underestimating future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Quantifying this bias is important for realistic carbon budget and mitigation assessments. Open access copy available |
Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budgetBackgroundOpen access copy available |
Harnessing Biomass and Blue Carbon Potential: Estimating Carbon Stocks in the Vital Wetlands of Eastern Sumatra, IndonesiaBackgroundMangrove forests can store significantly more carbon per hectare than other tropical forests, making mangrove conservation an important strategy for climate change mitigation. Since mangrove forests are highly heterogeneous, site-specific observations and models are important to inform mangrove conservation. This study combines field observations of living biomass and soil carbon stocks with mathematical models to document the potential for mangrove conservation to sustain important carbon sinks in Indonesia. Open access copy available |
Realizing the social value of impermanent carbon creditsBackgroundNature-based solutions (NbS) for carbon sequestration provide additional benefits outside of climate change mitigation, such as protecting biodiversity and local livelihoods. However, NbS projects struggle with financing due to challenges demonstrating additionality, avoiding overestimation of carbon storage, establishing metrics to compare NbS with technological projects, and accounting for project impermanence (i.e., the future risk of carbon being released into the atmosphere due to fires, deforestation, disease, or severe weather events). Open access copy available |
Enhancing climate change mitigation in protected areasBackgroundProtected areas (PAs) cover roughly 15–17% of the Earth’s land surface and contain a large share of remaining intact ecosystems, many of which store high densities of carbon. With global terrestrial ecosystems absorbing about 3 GtC yr⁻¹, understanding how much of this sink is associated with PAs is important for integrating biodiversity and climate strategies. However, evidence on PA effectiveness for carbon protection, across thousands of sites and multiple biomes, is dispersed and unevenly synthesized. Open access copy available |
