Global carbon budget 2014

Background

“Global carbon budget 2014” details the development of human-caused carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and how they are distributed among the atmosphere, ocean, and land up to 2013, with estimates for 2014. Atmospheric CO2 levels increased from about 277 ppm in 1750 to 395.31 ppm in 2013 and continue to rise as fossil fuel burning and land-use changes remain the main causes. This paper places these patterns within the context of industrial-era growth, international trade, and the differences between emerging and Annex B economies.

Goals and Methods

This study aims to quantify fossil-fuel and cement emissions (EFF), land-use change emissions (ELUC), atmospheric CO2 growth (GATM), and the land (SLAND) and ocean (SOCEAN) sinks, including uncertainties and regional patterns. EFF is derived from Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC) territorial energy and cement data, extended with BP statistics, and complemented by consumption-based inventories built from GTAP input–output trade data. ELUC combines FAO forest data, fire-based deforestation signals, and bookkeeping models, while GATM comes from NOAA and Scripps measurements, and SOCEAN and SLAND are inferred from observation-constrained ocean models and residual land-sink calculations cross-checked with dynamic global vegetation models.

Conclusions and Takeaways

For 2004-2013, mean fossil emissions were about 8.9 GtC yr⁻¹ and land-use change emissions were about 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹, with sinks and atmospheric growth closing the budget within stated uncertainties. In 2013, fossil emissions reached 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, while the atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm, and consumption-based accounting revealed substantial emission transfers from producing to consuming countries via trade. This research underscores that emissions continue to grow globally, though with signs of slowing in some economies, and provides practitioners with harmonized, traceable datasets for mitigation planning, carbon accounting, and evaluation of trade-related emission leakage.