Land Use Change and Trends
Global Carbon Budget 2025Background“Global Carbon Budget 2025” extends the living dataset on anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among atmosphere, ocean, and land, updating trends through 2024, and providing preliminary 2025 estimates. Atmospheric CO2 has risen from about 278 ppm in 1750 to 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm in 2024, with recent growth amplified by the 2023–2024 El Niño event. This paper highlights the continued dominance of fossil fuel emissions, persistent sources of land-use change, and climate-driven modulation of land and ocean sinks within the broader carbon-climate system. Open access copy available |
Global Carbon Budget 2024Background“Global Carbon Budget 2024” assesses how anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions disrupt the global carbon cycle relative to pre-industrial conditions, when atmospheric CO2 was about 278 ppm in 1750. The study focuses on emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change and how these are partitioned between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere. Recent changes, in the context of long-term trends since 1958, emphasize the role of deforestation, fossil fuel combustion, and climate variability, such as El Niño, in shaping CO2 fluxes. Open access copy available |
Global potential and limits of mangrove blue carbon for climate change mitigationBackgroundDespite national and international policy organizations’ interest in blue carbon financing for mangrove conservation, there is a lack of investment in payments for ecosystem services from the commercial sector. To encourage future investments and scale up blue carbon projects, it is necessary to address knowledge gaps on the financial return on investment for blue carbon projects. Open access copy available |
Decreasing landscape carbon storage in western US forests with 2 °C of warmingBackgroundThis study investigates how a 2°C increase in global mean temperature above pre-industrial levels could alter above-ground carbon storage in forests across the western United States, a region already experiencing climate-driven tree mortality, reduced regeneration, and more frequent fire and insect outbreaks. Forest carbon density is treated as a “carbon carrying capacity” controlled by climate and disturbance regimes, and there is concern that warming and drying will shift many areas towards lower carbon forest or non-forest states, with implications for climate mitigation and carbon offset projects. Open access copy available |
Getting the best of carbon bang for mangrove restoration buckBackgroundMangrove forest restoration projects have a range of benefits, like carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable development, that are important for different stakeholders. An analysis of the economic benefits and returns of mangrove restoration at country-level scales can encourage future support from these key investors and decision makers. Open access copy available |
Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systemsBackgroundThe gain and loss of mangrove forests worldwide depends on both biophysical factors and socioeconomic factors. With global mangrove cover decreasing since the 1990s and biophysical pressures on mangrove forests (i.e., shoreline erosion, extreme weather events) increasing due to climate change, it is important to understand which forms of national conservation policies, programs, governance, and local economic activity most rapidly reverse the rate of loss of mangrove forests. Open access copy available |
Bridging conservation and policy: evaluating national targets to reduce mangrove loss under the Kunming–Montreal biodiversity frameworkBackgroundThis research examines the alignment between the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) targets and national efforts to halt mangrove loss. Under the Convention on Biological Diversity, GBF’s Targets 1 and 3 aim to reduce habitat loss and expand protected areas to conserve 30% of critical ecosystems by 2030. Mangroves, vital for biodiversity, carbon storage, and coastal protection, continue to experience degradation due to both human and natural drivers. Despite partial success in global mangrove protection, national policies often fail to address underlying drivers of degradation or incorporate specific, measurable conservation actions. Open access copy available |
The enduring world forest carbon sinkBackgroundForests are critical to mitigating climate change because they absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and store it in biomass and soils. In 2023, atmospheric CO₂ levels exceeded 420 ppm, intensifying the urgency to understand terrestrial carbon sinks. Forests historically lost 180 Pg of carbon through land-use change, yet they remain central to achieving global net-zero goals by 2050. While remote sensing and modeling offer insights, this study emphasizes long-term, ground-based forest inventory data as the most reliable source for assessing trends in carbon sinks across boreal, temperate, and tropical forest biomes. Open access copy available |
The weak land carbon sink hypothesisBackgroundOpen access copy available |
The changing global carbon cycle: linking plant–soil carbon dynamics to global consequencesBackgroundOpen access copy available |
