Modelling Deforestation in Dzalanyama Forest Reserve, Lilongwe, Malawi: Using Multi-agent Simulation Approach

Background

The Dzalanyama Forest Reserve is a 90,000 + hectare area in Lilongwe, Malwi. There has been an increase in charcoal production in the area leading to land cover transitions in the reserve, particularly that forest cover decreased by 22,000 ha over a twenty year span between 1990 and 2010. 

Goals & Methods

The goal of this thesis is to identify the underlying causes of the deforestation trends and estimate the future loss.  Moreover, the author aims to provide a socio-scientific basis for policy recommendations in sustainable land management. A multi-agent simulation (MAS) is used, in which the cropping decisions and a labour practices of smallholder farmers surrounding the forest reserve are manipulated in order to better understand the future of deforestation.

Conclusions & Takeaways

The author concludes that the most significant driving forces of deforestation in the Dzalanyama Forest Reserve are economic issues, inlcuding an inability for locals to meet food needs and reliance on charcoal production. Thus, he argues for a "formalisation" of charcoal production through a taxation system as a means for reducing deforestation and increasing revenue for forestry authorities.